The Top500 List is out for November 2015. There were no changes in the top 5 fasted computers in the world, the top 5 is unchanged since June 2013. The fastest system in the world is still a 17.8 MegaWatt system in China. My theory on why the top 5 hasn't changed in 2 years is the high cost of sustaining such a system. The cost of electric power is a dramatic limitation on future new advances in computing platforms.

Ray Kurzweil's predictions of machine intelligence did not comprehend the power consumption required. Will there ever be a 100 MegaWatt system?.....maybe. It's certainly feasible. But I predict there will never be a 1 GigaWatt computing system. The power plant to supply it will be simply too expensive and too hot.

I think the only way we will see a single system with 100 exaflop or faster performance is if there is a dramatic decrease in the picojoule per flop requirements. This will require a profound change in the design of transistors. More importantly it will require an almost shocking change in the i/o routing to get signals into and out of these new nanoswitches. Such changes are not coming anytime soon regardless of what Moore's Law may predict.